Let’s Discuss Flood Maps
Real estate in Buncombe County is in a buyers market – too many sellers chasing too few buyers. While the primary driver is likely broad economic changes, one should not ignore the influence of Hurricane Helene on the market. Buyers are more aware of flood risk and landslides. Listing agents have a fiduciary duty to get the best price for their clients, but flood risks and landslides are material facts.
This dynamic has led to a debate about the best flood maps in the Buncombe County market. The best flood map for the seller may be different from the best flood map for the buyer. The FEMA floodmaps – the standard used to determine if Federally-backed mortgages will require flood insurance – have historically underestimated flood risk. This has contributed to a $22.5 billion increase in the national debt because the National Flood Insurance Program premiums have not been science based. Consequently, the program could not cover the cost of paying customers for damage given the increased frequency and severity of flooding events under a changing climate without borrowing from the US Treasury.
Some feel that the First Street Foundation maps – Flood Factor, which includes projected influence of climate change on flood risk – over identify flood risk and has improperly stigmatized some properties for sale. I developed the first Continuing Education course for Realtors on climate change to be accepted by eight real estate commissions. I started teaching the course in 2017 and the course includes the contrast between FEMA and Flood Factor maps.
I am also a broker and point clients to the best available science on climate risk when they have concerns, which is often. For my past clients, Helene caused damage to their roads and trees – but they faired pretty well. My heart goes out to the many who suffered. For those with stigmatized properties, I hope that public and corporate support can be found to help – much more work needs to be done. We are not the only community dealing with these issues.
Which map a buyer uses to make a purchase decision is up to the Buyer. The climate is indeed changing and so is land use. Land use can either increase or decrease downstream flood risk, or have no real effect. It is the Buyer’s choice how to deal with this uncertainty.
Under a changing climate, the landscape footprint of resilient home ownership has narrowed but there are still valuable investment opportunities. Given my experiences in the shifting market, I developed the proprietary Landscape Asset and Risk Analysis (LARA) to find and price resilient single family homes in Buncombe County. Buyers are still seeking positive assets across a landscape including golf courses, parks & public land, etc… LARA is an adaptive real estate tool to maximize Return on Investment to help clients find the landscape benefits they’re looking for while balancing risks.